As a manufacturing country, with the increase of labor cost and slowing economic growth in recent years, China's manufacturing industry is facing an industry crisis. Because of the lack of innovation ability, the weakness of ecological circle, the lack of market research with spare and insufficient power, and the lack of perfect supply chain, most manufacturing enterprises can only be reduced to assembly workshops or OEM enterprises driven by hardware and price cost. In 2016, a storm of price rise and shortage of supply chain in the whole industry of manufacturing industry came, which also made the manufacturing industry face great pressure. How to deal with this industrial crisis and realize the upgrading of manufacturing industry?
"This year, the whole purchasing group is suffering from a kind of anxiety, one is that suppliers are increasing their prices, the other is that they can not get them." Generally, the industry thinks that purchasing is Party A, and should be nourished. In fact, this year, the buyers are very painful. The previous key word of the purchasing industry in 2016 is "price increase". For large enterprises, the KPI assessment of the previous company procurement is costdown. But no one has raised costs this year, suppliers are rising prices almost every month, and some even increase prices every ten days.
deep reasons behind the rise of prices and shortage of goods in the whole industry
the previous keyword for procurement in 2016 is "price increase".
There are many reasons for the price rise of cartons, said Tang Zhongzheng, an analyst with Zhuo Chuang information. In the north, the rate of construction began to decline and the supply of packaging paper was tight; Secondly, due to the weather, the recovery of bulk raw material waste paper declined, and the price of waste paper kept high; Third, the coal price and freight are still in digestion; Fourth, from October to November, the downstream demand was strong, and e-commerce and other industries helped to boost the demand for packaging paper. In conclusion, it is the cost rise, the imbalance between supply and demand is exaggerated, and the raw paper enterprises purchase waste paper in order to ensure that the customer orders are greatly increased, which leads to the continuous rise of the price of waste paper, which is counter effect on the price of packaging raw paper.
in addition to the increase in the cost of raw materials, the other is the increase in freight. The transportation department has strictly restricted the freight trucks, and the logistics cost has risen by nearly 35%, and the increase of transportation cost will also affect the purchase cost“ PVC prices rose 60%, glass increased by 40%, plastics by 30%, aluminum by 30%, iron by 30%, cartons by 30%, stainless steel by 40%, freight increased by 35%
In contrast to the sharp increase in the price of raw materials, the depreciation of RMB is also increasing, and the cost of purchasing in US dollars by production enterprises is also rising“ Some experts predict that the RMB exchange rate should break 7 this year and will depreciate further next year. " In October, the RMB officially joined the SDR of international or IMF. Under the circumstance of rapid devaluation of RMB, inflation and price rise, and market expectations of devaluation are still in place, which strongly supports the domestic commodity futures price. In addition, the real estate market has been forced by policy, which makes speculative funds turn to futures markets such as commodities, which has manipulated the price of bulk materials.
the second key word for procurement in 2016 is "out of stock".
The suspension and renovation of Spring Festival further aggravates the supply contradiction in the downstream. In November, paper packaging enterprises represented by Jiulong paper industry announced a series of plans for the production stop of Spring Festival, which further intensified the supply contradiction of the industry. The market rose 3 rounds in September and 4 rounds in October. November is even more chaotic, every day different paper mills announced price hikes, has been unable to statistical concentrated price rise frequency.
from the increase point of view, from the previous single 50-150 yuan / ton to November 300-700 yuan / ton, the increase is also more and more amazing. The implementation of price increase and the attitude of downstream carton factory changed significantly in the second stage. With the frequent market price hike, the paper factory limited receipt is more and more, and the paper supply in the market is tight. In addition, the rising price of raw materials will further lead to shortage. Due to the existence of speculation and stock, the market supply is more intense.
how to deal with procurement“ "Eight character policy"
since the depreciation of RMB and the cost of raw materials are not changing in a short time. In order to meet the challenges in the future, procurement should be in accordance with the situation and choose the good and provide for it.
there are several KPI points in the past evaluation and procurement, including reducing cost and meeting delivery period. But by this year, the task of purchasing is to ensure supply and meet delivery period. Someone said that as long as the price is in place, it will not be out of stock. Even if the market is very short of goods, it can be obtained at a higher price“ At this time, there is no need to tangle prices too much, and we can exchange the price for quantity. "
for procurement, the main thing is to guarantee the supply and the important thing is to meet the delivery period. So we put forward the price for quantity. Even if it is very short of goods, you can get the goods at a higher price. So there is no need to tangle prices too much at this time.
in addition to the price for quantity, the purchase should also be able to pre judge the price of the future materials. If the future material price increase and exchange rate can be predicted successfully, strategic reserve should be carried out under the condition of low cost of materials, and even in case of shortage of materials, the price should be changed by quantity.
In addition, due to the great changes in the marketing demand of the company in the peak and off-season, the purchasing should balance the demand of the off-season and the off-season. For example, when the market is good, place a lot of orders. When the market is not good, it will not place an order. For suppliers, they will be risked. Another situation, Guiping said, is that the price of materials is too fast to make more money without selling products. At this time, the marketing department of the company should actively reduce demand, make strategic adjustment and reduce production and sales.
"It is only when we are out of stock or in difficult times that our suppliers are real friends." The so-called good choice and supply, in fact is "in need see the true feelings.". Suppliers and manufacturers can understand each other and warm up in the face of the crisis of the whole industry.